Research notes from the banking desk. Earnings panoramas, capital analysis, and the occasional strong opinion.

Jan 29, 2026

From Growth to Capital Discipline: What 4Q2025 Earnings Reveal About Qatari Banks

4Q2025 earnings from Qatari banks highlight a clear pivot from growth to capital discipline. Domestic franchises delivered stronger profitability and payouts, while banks with international exposure generated revenue but faced weaker returns due to provisioning, volatility, and limited capital efficiency.

Jan 17, 2026

U.S. Banks 4Q 2025 Earnings: Late-Cycle Stability, Capital Strength

Most major U.S. banks delivered 4Q25 earnings beats, driven primarily by stronger-than-expected trading and capital markets revenues rather than interest income. While results varied by business line, the overall pattern reinforced sector resilience and a constructive earnings backdrop despite a maturing cycle.

Jan 8, 2026

Bank Fundamental Analysis: Why Traditional Corporate Models Fail

Bank fundamental analysis is constrained not by data availability, but by a lack of comparability. Divergent accounting standards, inconsistent reporting, Basel regimes, RWA models, and disclosure practices make global bank analysis time-intensive and inconsistent.

Dec 22, 2025

Reshaping Bank Capital: The Evolving Role of Additional Tier 1 Instruments

Post–Credit Suisse, regulators are reassessing bank capital frameworks. Australia is phasing out AT1/CoCos from 2027, while ECB proposals to simplify rules and potentially reduce AT1’s role add uncertainty—likely shifting issuance toward Tier 2 and keeping banks cautious on new AT1 until clarity emerges.

Oct 16, 2025

U.S. Banks – 3Q 2025 Earnings Panorama

Seven major U.S. banks (JPM, BAC, Citi, WFC, GS, MS, USB) reported robust 3Q 2025 earnings between October 14 and 16, surpassing EPS and revenue estimates due to resilient consumer spending and heightened market volatility. Sector revenue grew 10.6% YoY on average (5-20% range), with net income up over 20% YoY.

Sep 4, 2025

Impact of Dutch Pension Reforms on Long-Dated Bonds

Dutch pension reforms, moving toward defined contribution, will sharply reduce demand for ultra-long government bonds (30+ years) from Germany, France, and the Netherlands due to lower long-term hedging needs. This is expected to push yields higher, steepen the yield curve, and increase volatility, with effects becoming prominent from early 2026 as funds shift toward shorter-duration assets and alternatives.

Aug 26, 2025

UK Banks: 2Q 2025 Earnings Panorama

UK banks delivered robust Q2 2025 earnings, mirroring U.S. banks […]

Aug 21, 2025

Q2 2025 U.S. Banks Earnings Summary

U.S. banks reported strong Q2 2025 results, driven by robust investment banking and trading revenues. Performance was mixed, with most banks exceeding EPS estimates but some falling short on revenue. Loan and deposit growth held firm, despite widespread net interest margin (NIM) compression. Stable asset quality and strong capitalization supported ongoing dividend increases and share repurchasing programs.

Aug 6, 2025

GCC Banks are Efficiently Managed Compared to DM Counterparts

Aug 4, 2025

Impact of Basel IV on Banks in Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Basel IV is set to influence risk-weighted assets (RWA) for […]